Chapter 19: The ArbiSource Lead Check
What you'll learn: how to check any lead with four questions, how to rate each answer green, amber or red, and how those ratings become one of four decisions: Buy, Test-buy, Watch or Pass.
The Lead Check at a glance
| Question | What you're asking |
|---|---|
| Match | Is the product I'd buy exactly the product on the Amazon listing? |
| Money | Is it profitable after every fee and cost, at the price it usually sells for? |
| Momentum | Does it sell steadily, will I get a fair share of the sales, and has the price held up? |
| Safety | Am I allowed to sell it, and can I sell it without problems? |
Rate each question green (no concerns), amber (a concern you can live with or test) or red (a reason not to buy). Then:
| Ratings | Decision | What you do |
|---|---|---|
| All four green | Buy | Buy a sensible quantity, based on your share of the sales |
| One amber, the rest green | Test-buy | Buy a small quantity to learn how it sells |
| Two or more ambers | Watch | Add it to your Sourcing List, set an alert and check again later |
| Any red | Pass | Move on to the next lead |
Red always wins: three greens can't outweigh one red.
Lead Check walkthrough on a US lead in ArbiSource, recorded on the US version.
Before you start: a quick sort
You don't need the full Lead Check on every result. First, narrow the list:
- Run Check Restrictions and hide what you can't sell.
- Sort by deal score. Each result's score out of 10 reflects profit, ROI, BSR, match confidence and number of sellers, weighted the way you set it up (Chapter 4.3). Start at the top.
- Skip the obvious no's. A clearly different product in the photos, or a price that only works today, can be passed in seconds.
The deal score tells you what to check first. It doesn't replace the Lead Check.
1. Match: is it the same product?
Profit figures are only right if the retailer's product and the Amazon listing are identical. Mismatches are the most common beginner mistake, and the easiest to avoid.
Check: pack size and count (single vs multipack), size, color and variation, edition or model year, what's included in a set, and the UPC where shown. Compare titles and photos side by side. ArbiSource's match confidence, alternative matches and the option to report a mismatch all help.
| Green | Amber | Red |
|---|---|---|
| Title, photos, pack size and UPC (or model number) all agree | Almost certainly the same, but one detail can't be confirmed, such as no UPC on the retailer's page | A different pack size, variation, edition or set |
2. Money: is it really profitable?
Check the profit and ROI after all of Amazon's fees, including the inbound placement fee, and your own costs such as prep and shipping to Amazon (Chapter 7). Most importantly, check them at the product's average selling price over the last 90 days or so, not just today's price. ArbiSource shows profit at the current price and at the average price for several periods.
Sales tax. ArbiSource's buy prices don't include sales tax. Allowing for it is optional, but it's good practice if you usually pay it: add your rate to the buy price, or keep your minimum ROI a few points higher (Chapter 6). If you buy tax-exempt with a resale certificate, there's nothing to add.
Your minimums. Before you start, write down the minimum profit and ROI you're comfortable with (Chapter 7). The examples in this Part use $3 profit and 30% ROI, but pick figures that suit your costs and budget.
| Green | Amber | Red |
|---|---|---|
| Meets both your minimums at the average price | Profitable at the average price, but below one of your minimums; or meets them only at today's price | A loss at the average price, or no realistic way to reach your minimums |
3. Momentum: will it sell, at that price?
Check what you learned in Part 3:
- Sales: regular rank drops over the last 90 to 180 days, and estimated or confirmed sales that agree (Chapter 8).
- Your share: divide the monthly sales by the number of competitive FBA sellers, then trim a little. Would your quantity sell within a month or two?
- Price history: a steady Buy Box price, not a recent spike (Chapter 9).
- Competition: a steady number of offers, and how often Amazon holds the Buy Box (Chapter 10).
- Season: where the product is in its yearly pattern, including Q4.
| Green | Amber | Red |
|---|---|---|
| Steady sales and price over several months; your share would sell within a month or two | One concern: a short history, a seasonal pattern, rising competition, or Amazon in the Buy Box some of the time | Very slow sales, a falling price, or Amazon holding the Buy Box nearly all the time at a price you can't match |
4. Safety: can you sell it without problems?
Check that your account can sell it (Check Restrictions; Chapter 3.3), and whether the result shows warnings for hazmat, oversize or potential IP issues. Think about expiration dates, fragile items and anything that needs special prep. Restrictions affect every seller, so a restricted result says nothing about you. Part 6 covers restrictions, brand choice and product safety in depth.
| Green | Amber | Red |
|---|---|---|
| You can sell it, with no warnings and no special handling | Sellable, but needs extra care, such as an expiration date, fragile packaging or a heavier box | Restricted on your account, a hazmat product you can't send in, or a potential IP warning you can't resolve |
Making the decision
- Buy. Choose a quantity you'd expect to sell within a month or two, based on your share of the sales. Start modestly, even on an all-green lead: you can always buy again.
- Test-buy. Buy just a few units. The point is to learn: how fast it sells, whether the price holds, whether the amber concern was real. If it goes well, it can be a Buy next time. Test-buys are what your free trial is for: they're how you start earning while you learn.
- Watch. Add it to your Sourcing List and set an alert for the price you'd need (Chapter 11). If you like, you can also follow watched leads in an optional paper-trading log alongside your real buying (Chapter 21).
- Pass. Note the reason; it helps you spot patterns.
The decision is the most you should do, not something you must do. If a lead comes out as a Test-buy and you're still uneasy, you can choose to watch it instead.
Common slips
- Rating Money on today's price: always check the average too.
- Trusting a high match confidence without looking: check pack sizes yourself.
- Forgetting your share of the sales: 300 sales a month split among 20 sellers is 15 each.
- Forgetting the smaller US fees: the inbound placement fee, and sales tax if you pay it, can turn a thin deal into a loss.
- Skipping Safety because the numbers are exciting: a great profit on a product you can't sell is no profit at all.
Checklist
- I've written down my minimum profit and ROI
- I've decided whether to allow for sales tax on purchases, and how
- I sort by deal score and run Check Restrictions before checking leads
- I can rate Match, Money, Momentum and Safety green, amber or red
- I know: all green, Buy; one amber, Test-buy; two or more ambers, Watch; any red, Pass