Chapter 20: Worked examples (UK leads)
What you'll learn: how the Lead Check works in practice, through six leads that end in each of the four decisions.
About these examples. They're illustrative: the products are described in general terms and the figures are simplified, but every fee is worked out with Amazon's UK fees from Chapter 5, outside the peak season. In each one, the seller:
- is not VAT registered, so 20% VAT on Amazon's fees is a cost (Chapter 6);
- allows £0.20 for prep and £0.30 to £0.40 for shipping to Amazon (example figures);
- has chosen minimums of £3 profit and 30% ROI.
"Amazon's fees" below means the referral fee, FBA fulfilment fee, fuel and logistics surcharge, digital services fee and about a month's storage. ArbiSource does all of this for you; the tables show what's behind its figures.
Lead Check worked examples on real UK leads, recorded on the UK version.
Example 1: a kitchen storage set (Buy)
A Store Scan finds a branded set of food storage containers for £13.50 at a UK retailer. It sells on Amazon for £29.99, with a 90-day average of £29.49. It's in the Kitchen category (15% referral fee) and is a standard parcel up to 1.4 kg.
| Today (£29.99) | 90-day average (£29.49) | |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon's fees | −£8.12 | −£8.03 |
| VAT on Amazon's fees | −£1.62 | −£1.61 |
| Prep and shipping | −£0.60 | −£0.60 |
| Product cost | −£13.50 | −£13.50 |
| Profit / ROI | £6.15 / 46% | £5.75 / 43% |
| Question | Rating | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Match | 🟢 Green | Same title, photos, set size and barcode |
| Money | 🟢 Green | Well above both minimums at the average price |
| Momentum | 🟢 Green | About 90 sales a month and 5 competitive FBA sellers: a share of around 15 a month. Price steady for 6 months |
| Safety | 🟢 Green | Ungated, no warnings, sturdy box |
Decision: Buy. A first order of about 10 units should sell within a month or so, based on that share.
Example 2: a skincare product with a short history (Test-buy)
A Price Drop shows a branded moisturiser at £6.00, down from £9.50. It sells for £16.99 (average £16.49) in Beauty (15% referral fee above £10), as a small parcel up to 400 g. It's above the £10 Low-Price FBA limit for Beauty, so normal FBA fees apply.
| Today (£16.99) | Average (£16.49) | |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon's fees | −£5.76 | −£5.68 |
| VAT on Amazon's fees | −£1.15 | −£1.14 |
| Prep and shipping | −£0.50 | −£0.50 |
| Product cost | −£6.00 | −£6.00 |
| Profit / ROI | £3.58 / 60% | £3.17 / 53% |
| Question | Rating | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Match | 🟢 Green | Same size (50 ml), same barcode |
| Money | 🟢 Green | Above both minimums at the average price |
| Momentum | 🟠 Amber | The listing has only about 3 months of history. Sales look steady, but there isn't much to go on |
| Safety | 🟢 Green | Ungated on this account, no hazmat warning, and the expiry date is well over a year away |
Decision: Test-buy. Buy 3 to 5 units and see how quickly they sell. If the price holds, it can become a Buy next time. Price Drops don't last, so check the retailer's price before ordering.
Example 3: a toy with a price spike (Watch)
A Vault result shows a construction toy for £9.00. Today it sells for £21.99, which looks excellent. But the Keepa chart shows the usual price over the last 90 days is about £17.99: the current price is a short spike because a few sellers ran out of stock. Toys and Games (15%), standard parcel up to 900 g.
| Today (£21.99) | Average (£17.99) | |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon's fees | −£6.64 | −£6.03 |
| VAT on Amazon's fees | −£1.33 | −£1.21 |
| Prep and shipping | −£0.50 | −£0.50 |
| Product cost | −£9.00 | −£9.00 |
| Profit / ROI | £4.52 / 50% | £1.25 / 14% |
Keepa 12-month chart for a Pokémon TCG Elite Trainer Box on Amazon.co.uk: a shortage spike from February to April, when stock ran short and prices jumped. The prices differ from Example 3, but the pattern is the same.
| Question | Rating | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Match | 🟢 Green | Same set number and piece count |
| Money | 🟠 Amber | Profitable at the average price, but well below both minimums. Only today's price meets them |
| Momentum | 🟠 Amber | Sales are steady, but the price is a spike and sellers are likely to return |
| Safety | 🟢 Green | Ungated, no warnings |
Decision: Watch. Add it to the Sourcing List and set a retailer price alert. If the toy drops to about £7 at a retailer, the numbers at the average price would work. If you keep an optional paper-trading log alongside your real buying (Chapter 21), it's a good one to follow.
Example 4: a multipack mismatch (Pass)
A scan shows a pack of kitchen sponges for £4.50, against an Amazon price of £16.99 (Home Products, 8% at £20 or less): an apparent profit of £6.40 and 142% ROI. That's a sign to look closer. The Amazon listing is a pack of 3; the retailer sells single packs.
| As shown | Buying 3 packs to match the listing | |
|---|---|---|
| Product cost | £4.50 | £13.50 |
| Profit / ROI | £6.40 / 142% | −£2.60 / −19% |
| Question | Rating | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Match | 🔴 Red | Different pack size: the listing is for the 3-pack, not the single pack the retailer sells |
| Money | 🔴 Red | A loss once you buy the right quantity |
Decision: Pass. Once Match is red, there's no need to check the rest. A profit that looks too good is often a mismatch. Report it in ArbiSource if the match is wrong, to help everyone.
Example 5: a restricted brand (Pass)
A Store Scan finds a large branded playset for £17.00 that sells for £34.99, with steady sales and a price that has held at that level for months. It would make about £6.31 profit (37% ROI). Everything looks right, until Check Restrictions shows the brand is restricted on this account, with no option to apply.
| Question | Rating | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Match | 🟢 Green | Same product and barcode |
| Money | 🟢 Green | Comfortably above both minimums |
| Momentum | 🟢 Green | Steady sales and price |
| Safety | 🔴 Red | Restricted on this account |
Decision: Pass, for now. Every seller is restricted in some brands, and that can change as your account grows (Part 6). Keep a note of brands like this; ArbiSource's Restriction Tracker can let you know if you become able to sell them.
Example 6: thin margins and cashback (Test-buy, or your choice to pass)
A video game is £15.75 at a retailer, with 5% cashback available. It sells for £27.99, with an average of £27.49 (Video Games, 15%; small parcel up to 400 g).
| Today (£27.99) | Average (£27.49) | |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon's fees | −£7.44 | −£7.36 |
| VAT on Amazon's fees | −£1.49 | −£1.47 |
| Prep and shipping | −£0.50 | −£0.50 |
| Product cost | −£15.75 | −£15.75 |
| Profit / ROI | £2.81 / 18% | £2.41 / 15% |
Cashback (about £0.79) can also help: with it, the profit at the average price would be about £3.20.
| Question | Rating | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Match | 🟢 Green | Same edition and platform, same barcode |
| Money | 🟠 Amber | Profitable at the average price, but below both minimums before cashback |
| Momentum | 🟢 Green | Fast, steady seller; price stable for a year |
| Safety | 🟢 Green | Ungated, no warnings |
Decision: Test-buy, at most. One amber allows a small test, and a fast seller is a reasonable place to try a thinner margin. But the ROI is half the seller's minimum, so passing is just as sensible. The decision sets the limit; you choose within it.
What the examples show
- Today's price can mislead. Example 3 looked like the best lead until the average price was checked.
- Too good to be true usually is. Example 4's 142% ROI was a mismatch.
- One red ends the check. Examples 4 and 5 didn't need every question answered.
- Amber is useful. It turns a "maybe" into a small, safe test or a lead to watch.
Checklist
- I've worked through each example and agree with the ratings
- I check the profit at the average price, not only today's
- I treat a surprisingly high ROI as a reason to check the match